Goldman Sachs has lowered its average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel, citing stronger global supply growth and continued weakness in demand, particularly in China. According to a research note from the investment bank via Reuters, rising oil production from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates, combined with structural shifts in energy consumption, is expected to weigh on prices over the longer term. Goldman said it expects more than 10% of the current weakness in demand to persist as China’s transition toward alternative energy sources, including electric vehicles, accelerates.
Despite lowering its 2027 outlook, Goldman maintained its expectation that Brent crude will average $90 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank noted that the effects of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have been moderated by a smaller-than-anticipated supply shortfall and weaker global demand.
Goldman estimated that disruptions to Middle Eastern production initially reduced regional liquids output significantly, but the resulting global deficit during the second quarter amounted to approximately 5 million to 6 million barrels per day. Existing oversupply and lower demand helped cushion the impact. The bank now expects oil exports from Gulf producers to normalize by late August, compared with its previous expectation of late June.
The bank outlined several scenarios for oil prices. Under an adverse scenario involving prolonged export disruptions, Brent could average slightly above $110 per barrel in late 2026. A more severe scenario, in which disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue through 2027, could send prices as high as $140 per barrel.
On the other hand, Goldman said that a quicker recovery in supply and weaker-than-expected demand could push Brent prices down to around $70 per barrel by the end of 2026 and approximately $60 per barrel in 2027.
The revised forecast reflects the growing influence of both supply growth and changing consumption patterns on global energy markets, even as geopolitical developments continue to create the potential for significant price volatility.
