Intesa Sanpaolo has laid out a new multi-year strategy that combines high shareholder distributions with a push to expand fee-led revenue, reduce structural costs, and continue investing heavily in technology.
At the center of the plan is a commitment to return around €50 billion to shareholders over the 2025–2029 period. The bank says this is based on a 95% payout ratio each year from 2026 to 2029, split roughly 75% in cash dividends and about 20% in share buybacks. Any additional distributions beyond the baseline would be assessed on a year-by-year basis starting in 2027.
The bank is pairing that capital-return framework with profitability targets requiring net income to exceed €11.5 billion by 2029, up from €9.3 billion in 2025. Intesa also targets a ROE of 22% and a ROTE of 27% by 2029, aiming to keep returns resilient as the interest-rate environment evolves.
On efficiency, Intesa expects a structural decline in costs and is targeting a cost-to-income ratio of 36.8% in 2029, down from 42.2% in 2025. The plan also outlines €1.6 billion of cost savings over 2026–2029, alongside continued spending to support growth initiatives and modernization.
On the revenue side, the bank expects operating income to rise to €30.7 billion by 2029 from €27.3 billion in 2025, driven by growth in fees and commissions as the business mix continues to shift toward wealth management, protection, and advisory services. Customer financial assets are expected to reach about €1.7 trillion by 2029.
Technology investment is positioned as a key enabler of both growth and cost reduction. Intesa’s plan materials indicate €5.1 billion in total investments for 2026–2029, including €4.6 billion for technology and growth, as the bank continues upgrading systems and accelerating digital initiatives.
On asset quality and capital, Intesa reiterates its “zero-NPL” positioning and targets a net NPL ratio below 1% over the plan period, alongside a cost of risk of 25-30 basis points per year. It also sets a CET1 ratio target above 12.5% throughout 2026–2029, a key constraint given the scale of planned shareholder returns.
