President Donald Trump’s newly announced oil agreement with Venezuela gives the U.S. majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of the country’s proven reserves, but energy analysts say the transaction is unlikely to materially lower gasoline prices in the near term, according to a CNBC report. Trump has said the agreement will substantially lower gasoline prices for Americans over the longer term.
The 65 billion barrels covered by the deal represent roughly 20% of Venezuela’s approximately 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest national reserve base in the world.
The challenge is converting those underground reserves into additional barrels available to global markets.
Venezuela is currently producing approximately 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, far below its late-1990s peak of roughly 3.5 million barrels per day. Years of underinvestment, operational deterioration and political instability have left significant portions of the country’s production and export infrastructure requiring substantial upgrades.
The issue is especially relevant for American consumers because U.S. gasoline prices averaged approximately $4.08 per gallon nationwide Monday, nearly 30% above year-ago levels.
Current price pressure is being driven largely by global supply concerns, including the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions affecting Russian refining capacity, rather than insufficient access to Venezuelan reserves alone.
Rystad Energy previously estimated that approximately $180 billion of investment through 2040 could be required to restore Venezuela’s production toward its historical peak.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the new agreement is expected to generate nearly $100 billion of private-sector investment.
Even with substantial capital commitments, however, bringing neglected fields, pipelines, terminals and other infrastructure back into productive use could take years.
David Goldwyn, a former U.S. State Department special envoy for international energy affairs, told CNBC that much of the acreage involved in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt currently has little or no access to the infrastructure required to move meaningful quantities of crude.
He estimated that those fields could require five to seven years, even under favorable circumstances, before producing additional marketable supply.
Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez has said the 25-year agreement involves development of 17 oilfields and could initially increase production to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day.
Reuters separately reported that the fields contain about 64 billion barrels of proven reserves and that the broader structure under discussion could ultimately increase production to as much as 1.5 million barrels per day.
Chevron is currently the major U.S. oil company with the most established operating presence in Venezuela.
The company’s Venezuelan production has increased approximately 15% this year to around 280,000 barrels per day.
Chevron has indicated it could increase that output by as much as 50% through 2028, potentially bringing its Venezuelan production to roughly 400,000 barrels per day.
But additional production alone does not eliminate the infrastructure bottleneck.
Analysts noted that Venezuela’s aging export terminals and power infrastructure are already creating logistical problems, with some tankers waiting weeks to load cargoes.
Significantly higher production would therefore require investment not only in oilfields but also in transportation, electrical infrastructure, ports and export facilities.
There is also uncertainty about how many major international oil companies will commit billions of dollars to new Venezuelan projects and under what legal structures.
The agreement’s full terms have not been made public, creating questions around ownership, operating rights, long-term political stability and the durability of contracts across future governments in both Washington and Caracas.
Reuters reported that the broader arrangement involves a government-to-government agreement followed by operating partnerships under Venezuelan law and a U.S. equity structure tied to the company developing the fields.
The agreement could nevertheless become strategically important over a longer time horizon.
A large increase in Venezuelan output would add another major source of supply to world oil markets and could create additional options for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, many of which are configured to process heavier crude grades such as those produced in Venezuela.
Trump has also said Venezuelan oil secured through the agreement could help replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
That reserve fell to approximately 286.6 million barrels last week, its lowest level since November 1982, following a 3.1 million-barrel weekly decline.
For consumers, however, the central distinction is between owning or controlling access to reserves and actually producing additional oil.
The Venezuela agreement could eventually add substantial supply if the required investment, infrastructure improvements and political arrangements come together. But analysts cited by CNBC expect those benefits to unfold over years rather than translate into immediate savings at gasoline stations.
