Vistra has hedged approximately 94% of its expected 2027 generation volumes as the company targets a previously announced 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion, while its generation fleet maintained commercial availability of at least 97% during periods of extreme heat in Texas and the PJM market.
The hedging position extends beyond next year. As of August 3, Vistra had hedged approximately 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026 and approximately 72% for 2028, giving the company substantial forward visibility across several years of generation output.
Vistra said the hedging program supports its reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion.
Importantly, the 2027 EBITDA opportunity does not include potential benefits from the pending Cogentrix acquisition or signed power purchase agreements with Meta, portions of which are expected to begin contributing to Adjusted EBITDA in 2027.
The earnings outlook is supported by strong recent operating performance. Second-quarter Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.767 billion from $1.349 billion, an increase of more than 30%. Vistra attributed the $418 million improvement primarily to higher realized energy and capacity prices and a full quarter of contributions from plants acquired from Lotus.
The Texas segment’s Adjusted EBITDA increased to $311 million from $142 million, while East segment Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $642 million from $418 million. Retail Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $773 million from $756 million.
GAAP net income was $305 million compared with $327 million a year earlier despite the much stronger Adjusted EBITDA result. The difference was driven largely by an increase of $488 million in unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivative positions, partially offset by higher realized prices, capacity revenue and Lotus contributions.
Operational reliability was another major component of the quarter. During periods of extreme summer heat across Texas and PJM, Vistra maintained commercial availability of 97% or greater across its fleet, helping the company capture stronger market conditions while keeping generating assets available during periods of elevated electricity demand.
Vistra is also expanding its exposure to data-center demand. It announced Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, Kuwait Investment Authority and NVIDIA, with an initial Vistra commitment of up to $1 billion. Vistra will also serve as Helix’s preferred power provider.
Capital returns remain another component of the strategy. Vistra has executed approximately $6.5 billion of share repurchases since November 2021, reducing shares outstanding by approximately 30% to roughly 336 million. Approximately $1.2 billion remained under the repurchase authorization as of August 3, with Vistra expecting to complete the program no later than year-end 2027.
KEY QUOTES:
“The Vistra team delivered another strong quarter, building on our momentum from the start of the year and continuing to execute at a high level. I’m incredibly proud of our employees across the company – through their commitment, collaboration, and focus on serving our customers, Vistra delivered a more than 30% year-over-year increase in Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA. From our generation team maintaining a reliable fleet, to our commercial and retail teams navigating dynamic market conditions and delivering solutions for customers, these results reflect the hard work and dedication of our people.”
“Operationally, the Vistra team’s preparation and disciplined execution during our annual spring maintenance season set us up for strong, reliable performance during the first half of the summer. During recent periods of extreme heat in Texas and the PJM market, Vistra achieved commercial availability of 97% or greater across our fleet, helping ensure reliable power when our customers and communities needed it most. As we complete the critical summer period and the remainder of the year, we remain focused on safely and reliably operating our fleet, advancing our strategy, and continuing to create solutions and value for our customers, communities, employees, and shareholders.”
Jim Burke, President and CEO of Vistra
